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Game Preview Week 15 Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (7-6)
Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1) vs Arizona Cardinals (7-6)
The Jalen Hurts era started in Philly with a bang as the Eagles knocked off the number 1 seed Saints being a strong rushing attack led by Hurts and Miles Sanders. The defense was the real winner in this game as they completely shut down the Saints offense for most of the game. But the win came at a cost, Rodney McLeod tore his MCL and will be out for the season and a number of other defenders left the game and will be questionable going into the game this week. The Eagles also lost starting RT Jack Driscoll for the remainder of the season to a MCL sprain.The Eagles with their rookie QB at the helm will travel to Arizona this week to take on the Arizona Cardinals who need a win to stay close in the playoff hunt. The loss of McLeod will be felt as the Cardinals come in with an impressive passing attack led by Kylar Murray and WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk. Jim Schwartz will need to come up with a game plan to shutdown the Cardinals big time WRs with a banged up secondary. At the same time they will need to slow down the Cardinals running game where Murray is also dangerous, but Kenyon Drake is the real threat. The Eagles will also unfortunately still be fighting for a playoff spot by winning the NFCE shitpile, but will be eliminated this week with a Washington win and an Eagles loss. Here is to an injury free game.
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
WIP-FM
94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA
WCTO-FM
96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey
WENJ-FM
97.3 FM
Levittown, PA
WBCB-AM
1490 AM
Northumberland, PA
WEGH-FM
107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA
WPPA-AM
1360 AM
Reading, PA
WEEU-AM
830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
WEJL-FM
96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WEJL-AM
630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WBAX-AM
1240 AM
Williamsport, PA
WBZD-FM
93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE
WDEL-FM/AM
101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA
WSOX-FM
96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
LA MEGA
105.7 FM
Allentown, PA
WSAN
1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ
WIBG
1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Cardinals Radio
Arizona Sports (98.7 FM) is the flagship station of the Cardinals Radio Network.Dave Pasch handles the play-by-play duties, Cardinals FB Ron Wolfley provides color commentary for the Cardinals.
November 10, 1935 at Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL. Chicago Cardinals 12 - Philadelphia Eagles 3
Points Leader
The Philadelphia Eagles lead the Arizona/St.Louis/Chicago Cardinals (719-680)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 1-0 vs. the Cardinals
Kliff Kingsbury: 0-0 vs. the Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Pederson vs Kingsbury: First Meeting of the coaches.
Quarterback Record
Jalen Hurts: Against Cardinals 0-0
Kylar Murrayl: Against Eagles: 0-0
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Jalen Hurts vs Kylar Murray: This will be the first matchup between the QBs in the NFL
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Eagles lead: 3-2
Record @ State Farm Stadium: Cardinals leads series: 3-0
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 23 - Cardinals No. 14
2020 Record
Eagles: 4-8-1
Cardinals 7-6
Last Meeting
Sunday, October 8th, 2017
Eagles 34 - Cardinals 7
The Eagles scored early and often in this game, for their first blowout win of the season against the Arizona Cardinals. Carson Wentz found tight ends Trey Burton and Zach Ertz for early touchdowns, and later connected with wide receiver Torrey Smith for a 59-yard touchdown to finish the first quarter. Following Smith's touchdown, the Eagles unveiled their baseball home run celebration for the first time all season. The closest the Cardinals came was in the second quarter when they trailed 21–7 following a John Brown 13-yard touchdown. In the mid third quarter, on 3rd and 19, Wentz found wide receiver Nelson Agholor for a 72-yard touchdown pass, on which Agholor juked rookie safety Budda Baker and finished the play with the Nestea Plunge. The final score was 34–7, and Wentz threw for four touchdowns, including three first quarter touchdown passes.
Cardinals MLB Jordan Hicks was drafted in the 3rd round in 2015 NFL Draft and played 4 seasons with the Eagles.
Cardinals LB Hassan Reddick is from Camden NJ, and attended college at Temple in Philadelphia.
Cardinals RB James Saxon played one season for the Eagles in 1995.
Cardinals LB Coach Billy Davis served as defensive coordinator of the Eagles from 2013-2015.
Eagles S Rudy Ford played two seasons with the Cardinals from 2017-2018.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles
Cardinals
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)
WR DeAndre Hopkins(Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter)
OLB Chandler Jones (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
FS Budda Baker (Starter)
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
LS Rick Lavato (Starter)
General
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Jalen Hurts started his first career game in Week 14 vs. New Or-leans, leading the Eagles to a 24-21 victory over the 10-2 Saints. Hurts, the Eagles’ youngest starting QB since Jack Concannon in 1964, became the second QB in NFL history to beat a team on a 9+ game winning streak in their starting debut, joining Ron Jawor-ski (12/20/75 vs. Pittsburgh with L.A. Rams - snapped Steelers’ 11-game streak). He also became the first NFL QB since 1950 to throw a TD pass and rush for 100+ yards in their first start.
Miles Sanders (746 rushing yards, 5 TDs), ranks 2nd among NFL RBs in rushing average (5.7), behind Nick Chubb (5.9) (min. 125 attempts). In Week 14 vs. New Orleans, Sanders recorded an 82-yard rushing TD, marking the 4th-longest rushing play in Eagles history. He is the first NFL RB with 3 rushes of 70+ yards in the same season since 2012, when Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson each accomplished the feat.
Philadelphia’s defense ranks 2nd in the NFL with 43.0 sacks, trail-ing only Pittsburgh (45.0). Since Week 10, Fletcher Cox ranks 1st among NFL DTs with 4.0 sacks, while Javon Hargrave is tied for 2nd with Aaron Donald and Leonard Williams with 3.5 sacks.
Dallas Goedert is one of three NFL TEs with 250+ receiving yards (261) and 2+ TDs (2) since Week 11, joining Travis Kelce (481 yards, 3 TDs) and Darren Waller (386 yards, 3 TDs).
Draft Picks
Eagles
Cardinals
WR Jalen Raegor
OLB Isiah Simmons
QB Jalen Hurts
OT Josh Jones
LB Davion Taylor
DT Leki Fotu
S K’Von Wallace
LB Kamal Martin
OT Jack Driscoll
DT Rashard Lawrence
WR John Hightower
LB Evan Weaver
LB Shaun Bradley
RB Eno Benjamin
WR Quez Watkins
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
LB/DE Casey Toohill
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles
Cardinals
DT Javon Hargrave
WR DeAndre Hopkins
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman
DT Jordan Phillips
CB Darius Slay
LB Devon Kennard
LB De’Vondre Campbell
DT Trevon Coley
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles
Cardinals
S Malcom Jenkins
RB David Johnson
CB Ronald Darby
DE Rodney Gunter
RB Jordan Howard
DT Cassius Marsh
WR Nelson Agholor
DT Zach Kerr
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai
DT Cararun Reid
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill
CB Bradon Williams
RB Darren Sproles
WR Pharoh Cooper
DT Timmy Jernigan
WR Damiere Byrd
LB Nigel Bradham
LB Joe Walker
OT William Sweat
Milestones
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (29) needs 1 sacks to move up to 18th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DT Jerome Brown
Eagles TE Zach Ertz needs 40 yards for 6000 career receiving yards.
Food for Thought
The 1948 Philadelphia Eagles-Chicago Cardinals Championship Bout
Eagles fans recall Super Bowl LII with wonder and relish in it. These days, that date seems so very long ago, but there was another magical Championship game I’d like to remind you of, as the Eagles and Cardinals face off (and the Northeast just got a snow dump), the Eagles’ first championship. Sure, this team the Eagles will face is not the Chicago Cardinals or the St. Louis Cardinals or the Phoenix Cardinals, but it’s the same franchise of course. As far as snowy games, fans typically recall the Eagles’ fun snow game of 2013 against the Lions in which players made snow angels in the endzone, but there was an even more memorable one, one which Eagles RB Steve Van Buren didn’t even think was going to take place. With a blizzard harrowing Philadelphia: “I was sure they wouldn’t be able to play and went back to bed,” Van Buren told [Joe Jonas]. “Then, ‘Greasy’ (coach Earle Neale) called and told me the game was on and to get a move on. I had to take a trolley, then the El, and then a second trolley. When that trolley bogged down in the snow, I had to walk down Lehigh Avenue through the drifts about two miles to the park. I got there just a couple of minutes before the kickoff.” source. Van Buren and the Eagles proceeded to run amok all over the Cardinals that fateful day. Where the Cardinals managed 34 rushes for 96 yards, Van Buren led the Eagles to a 57 for 225 line day (let’s disregard Eagles QB Tommy Thompson stumbling toward a 0.0 passer rating: 2/12 for 7 yards and 2 INTs). Despite the Eagles controlling the game--in fact, the Eagles scored on the 1st play of the game, but it was called back for Offsides--it wasn’t until a minute left in the 4th that either team scored, a 5 yard rush by Van Buren. In victory, the Eagles exacted revenge on the Cardinals for losing the championship matchup the year prior 28-21.
Matchups to Watch
Arizona rushing attack vs the Eagles front seven
The Eagles have repeatedly struggled this season with teams who have mobile quarterbacks, who are able to escape the pocket. They did well last week against Taysom Hill, however this week they will take on Kylar Murray who is a lot closer to Lamar Jackson than Taysom Hill. The Eagles gave up 100 yards and a TD when they faced Jackson this season.again Like Jackson, Kylar Murray has the ability to break off big runs, as he is second to Jackson in rushing yards by a QB this season. Murray has over 700 rushing yards and a league leading 10 rushing TDs by a QB this season. Pair that with the impressive running attack of Kenyon Drake and the Eagles front seven will have their hands full on Sunday. With a talented receiving corp of the Cardinals the Eagles will not be able to stack the box and it will be on the front seven to keep contain and stay in the lanes to keep Murray and Drake in check. If they don’t and allow the Cardinals to establish the run look for the Cardinals to pound the run and look for a big play off play-action to one of their talented WRs.
Eagles banged up secondary vs the talented receiving corp of the Cardinals
In their win over the Saints, the Eagles lost their two best players in the secondary in safety Rodney McLeod and CB Darius Slay. McLeod unfortunately tore his MCL and will miss the remainder of the season and Slay suffered a concussion and while he has progressed through the protocol he has not been cleared as of the time of this writing. If Slay misses the game the Eagles will most likely lean on Avonte Maddox to cover All-Pro WR DeAndre Hopkins which is not good news for the Eagles. Last time the Maddox was asked to cover an All-Pro he was absolutely torched by Davante Adams. Hopkins is also questionable for the game, but is trending towards playing.Eagles DC Jim Schwartz will need to get creative with his coverages and hope his front four can continue to wreak havoc like they did last week where Hill was under constant pressure. If given time, Murray will cut up this secondary and have some big plays against the Eagles backups.
Jalen Hurts and Doug Pederson vs Vance Joseph
Cardinals’ defensive coordinator Vance Joseph will have the job of stopping the Eagles rookie QB who ran all over the Saints number one ranked defense last week. Doug Pederson said earlier this week that the Eagles simply shot themselves in the foot in the second half against the Saints, but rewatching the game it looks like the Saints made some adjustments at halftime that were effective in slowing down and confusing the rookie QB. Unlike the Saints, Joseph will have a full game tape to review and prepare for Hurts. Of course, Pederson and Eagles know what they put out on film too and will have to adjust to how they played in the second half against the Saints. It’ll be up to them to have a counterpunch ready to go depending on how the Cardinals play the rookie quarterback. Hurts was far more effective with his legs than his arm against the Saints, so I would not be surprised to see Joseph put a spy on Hurts to limit his ability to run. If the Cardinals do spy him, it will most likely go to former Eagles Jordan Hicks who is extremely athletic for an LB and should be able to match Hurts speed and athleticism. With the spy that’s one less player in coverage, which should open some up some things in the passing game if Hurts can take advantage of it. The Eagles have a lot of offensive coaches on the staff and it is their job to put him in the best position to be successful, but that is something they have failed to do with a number of guys on the offense this year, so it remains to see if they can do it with Hurts when the other team is gameplanning for him. If they can and that is a big IF Hurts will still need to execute and continue to show the same poise he did last weekend.
Special thanks to abenyishay for their help in creating this Game Preview.
[Game Preview] Week 8 - Philadelphia Eagles(2-4-1) vs Dallas Cowboys (2-5)
Philadelphia Eagles (2-4-1) vs Dallas Cowboys (2-5)
Sunday Night Football will host the most popular match in its history as the Dallas Cowboys will face off against the Philadelphia Eagles on Prime Time Sunday Night. It will be the 15th Sunday Night meeting between the clubs. The match up however is far from what it was on paper before the season started. Both teams are dealing with injuries all over the field with Dallas dealing with the biggest injury after losing Dak Prescott for the season with a fracture and dislocated ankle. The Cowboys will also be without Andy Dalton who is still in the league’s concussion protocol after an extremely dirty hit by Washington’s Jon Bostic last week. The Eagles are coming off their first division win and getting healthier as rookie WR Jalen Raegor will return to the lineup Sunday Night and give Wentz another speedy threat in the receiving corps just as he is finding rhyme with his other speedy rookie John Hightower. If Wentz can get the passing game, the Eagles should have no problem putting up points against the porous Dallas defense. Even if Eagles RB Miles Sanders can’t go, the Eagles should still be able to move the ball on the ground with Boston Scott and Corey Clement as the Cowboys have the last ranked run defense in the league giving up 178 yards per game on the ground. For Cowboys they will see what they have in 3rd string QB Ben DiNucci. Schwartz will most likely look to pressure the young QB and rattle him into making mistakes. However, if DiNucci can stand in there and avoid the pressure he still has a number of dangerous targets who have the ability to gash the Eagles defense which has been weak this season. The Eagles are heavily favored, but this is an NFCE matchup on a national stage, so we can most likely expect a sloppy game with turnovers that ends closer than it should. Go Birds!
NBC will broadcast Sunday’s game to a national audience. Al Michaels will handle the play-by-play duties and Chris Collinsworth will attempt to provide analysis. Michele Tafoya will report from the sidelines.
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
WIP-FM
94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA
WCTO-FM
96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey
WENJ-FM
97.3 FM
Levittown, PA
WBCB-AM
1490 AM
Northumberland, PA
WEGH-FM
107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA
WPPA-AM
1360 AM
Reading, PA
WEEU-AM
830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
WEJL-FM
96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WEJL-AM
630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WBAX-AM
1240 AM
Williamsport, PA
WBZD-FM
93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE
WDEL-FM/AM
101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA
WSOX-FM
96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
LA MEGA
105.7 FM
Allentown, PA
WSAN
1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ
WIBG
1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Dallas Radio
Dallas Cowboys Radio Network Brad Sham returns for his 42nd season in the Dallas Cowboys radio booth. Beloved by Cowboys fans, Sham's award winning play-by-play has provided the soundtrack to many of the most memorable moments in Dallas Cowboys history. Babe Laufenberg returns as the Network's full-time color analyst. A fixture on the sideline, veteran reporter Kristi Scales provides instant updates from the field.
National Radio
Westwood One will broadcast the game nationally with Tom McCarthy handling the play by play and Ross Tucker will provide analysis.
September 30th, 1960 at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, TX. Dallas Cowboys 25 - Philadelphia Eagles 27
Points Leader
The Dallas Cowboys lead the Philadelphia Eagles (2650-2401)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 3-5 against the Cowboys
Mike McCarthy: 4-1 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Mike McCarthy: McCarthy leads 1-0
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Cowboys: 2-4
Ben NiDucci: Against Eagles: 0-0
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz vs Ben NiDucci: First Meeting
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Cowboys lead the Eagles: 10-7
Record @ AT&T Stadium: Series tied: 6-6
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 21 - Cowboys No. 29
Record
Eagles: 2-4-1
Cowboys: 2-5
Last Meeting
Sunday, December 29th, 2019
Eagles 17 - Cowboys 9
This was the game Wentz needed to win, his spirit growing after the Eagles rallied on the final drive in two straight weeks to beat the Giants and Redskins and thrust themselves back into the playoff picture. He rallied the Eagles with a pep talk in the tunnel before they hit the field for perhaps the biggest game of the 26-year-old QB's career. Perhaps fueled by the emotional edict, Wentz came out connecting on almost every pass, and a maligned wide receiver group that suffered a season-long case of the drops suddenly made plays. The Eagles took a 17-3 lead when Wentz hit former college quarterback Greg Ward for 24 yards and Miles Sanders scored on a 1-yard run on the final play of the third quarter for a 17-3 lead. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys fought back and Dak had the Cowboys in position to tie the game when Sidney Jones broke up Dak’s 4th down pass to Michael Gallup and Jerry Jones exited the box with 1:15 on the clock as the Eagles prevented Dallas from clinching the division with the win.
Eagles - The Eagles faced off against the division rival Giants who were coming off their first win of the season and were looking for a 2nd for first year coach Joe Judge. The Eagles have moved to 2-4-1 on the season after rallying to defeat the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football, 22-21. After New York gave its best punch of the night -- a 97-yard touchdown drive headlined by Daniel Jones -- to go up 21-10 with just over six minutes to play, Philadelphia scored 12 unanswered points to earn the win. Carson Wentz led a 71-yard touchdown drive to give the Eagles the lead with just 40 seconds to play after connecting with running back Boston Scott on an 18-yard reception. Along with the comeback, he finished his night with 359 yards passing, two touchdowns and one interception while completing passes to eight different Eagles receivers. He also ran for 15 yards and a touchdown. As for the Giants, they mustered just 325 yards of offense and struggle to protect Daniel Jones throughout the contest
Cowboys - The situation went from bad to worse for the Cowboys, who had no answers for Washington's defense. After a goal-line stand on Washington's opening drive, a strip sack by Landon Collins on Andy Dalton led to an early Washington safety. Washington then marched down the field, extending their lead to 9-0 on a 12-yard touchdown run by Antonio Gibson. The Cowboys responded with their only points of the afternoon on a Greg Zuerlein field goal. However, Washington would score two more touchdowns in the second quarter to put the game out of reach for Dallas. With this loss, Dallas dropped to 2-5 on the season. Quarterback Andy Dalton would leave the game in the third quarter following a late hit by Washington linebacker Jon Bostic, who was subsequently ejected. Rookie quarterback Ben DiNucci would finish the game in place of Dalton, who was evaluated for a concussion.
Connections
Eagles S Jalen Mills was born in Dallas and grew up in DeSoto, TX and went to Desoto High School.
Cowboys DB Coach *Al Harris * played 5 seasons for the Eagles from 1998-2002.
Cowboys DT Justin Hamilton played one season for the Eagles in 2017.
Cowboys Assistant Director of Video Stephen Gagliardino began his NFL career in 1995 as a ball boy with the Philadelphia Eagles when he was 16 years old, working training camp and game days at Veterans Stadium. He did that for four seasons before moving over to the Eagles video department in 1999, where he worked full time as an intern for three seasons (1999-2001).
Many Cowboys fans were born and raised in the Greater Philadelphia Area, however have no ties to Dallas nor have ever been to the city.
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox and Cowboys QB Dak Prescott played together at Mississippi State University when Prescott was a red shirt freshman.
Eagles OT Lane Johnson is from Groveton, TX and has family who are Cowboys fans including his grandmother who was told “Shut up, if you want to see 75” while she was rooting for the Cowboys.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles
Cowboys
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)
OT Tyron Smith (starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter)
RB Ezekiel Elliott
TE Zach Ertz
G Zack Martin (starter)
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
C Travis Fredrick
LS Rick Lavato (Starter)
LB Jalen Smith (1st Alt)
SS Malcom Jenkings (1st Alt)
WR Amari Cooper (1st Alt)
OT Lane Johnson (1st Alt
General
Referee: Jerome Boger
Philadelphia hosts Dallas for the first time since Week 16 of the 2019 season, when the Eagles defeated the Cowboys, 17-9.
Carson Wentz is tied for the 5th-most offensive TDs (10) in the NFL since Week 4, trailing only Tom Brady (13), Kyler Murray (12), Deshaun Watson (11) and Justin Herbert (11).
In 7 games against the Cowboys, Wentz has completed 174-of-255 attempts (68.2%) for 1,713 yards (244.7 ypg), 12 TDs, 2 INTs and a 99.4 rating (100+ rating in 3 of last 4 games vs. Dallas).
Travis Fulgham ranks 2nd among NFL WRs with 357 receiving yards since Week 4 (when he was promoted from the practice squad to the Eagles active roster), behind Robby Anderson (362). Fulgham’s 357 yards are the most by any player in their first 4 games as an Eagle since Terrell Owens in 2004 (364).
Brandon Graham is tied for the 3rd-most sacks in the NFL (6.0), trailing only Myles Garrett (9.0) and Aaron Donald (8.0). Graham ranks 3rd with 9 TFLs, behind T.J. Watt (12) and Vince Williams (12). He is the only NFL player with 6.0+ sacks and 9+ TFLs.
Eagles QB Carson Wentz (970) needs 30 yards for 1000 career rushing yards.
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox (49.5) needs 1 sack to move up to 6th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Greg Brown
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (27.5) needs 2 sacks to move up to 18th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DT Jerome Brown
Stats to Know
Gingers Under Pressure
Everybody knows there are some fantastical magical forces at play when it comes to redheads. They are a curious bunch. This week, we were almost set to witness the Battle of the Gingers in a matchup of piss-poor teams. Surely, the two were going to be under immense pressure to assert himself as the Supreme Ginger...and thus, we will be discussing the two under pressure, even though Andy is surely going to miss this coming game after a dirty hit to the head against the WFT. In 2020, a season demolishing both Dallas's and Philadelphia's Offensive Lines, not a single other NFL QB has been under pressure as much as Mr. Wentz (118 pressure dropbacks). His pressured dropback % is at least slightly better (36.9%), good for 9th-highest. He's also experienced the 6th-highest sack rate (23.7% of pressured dropbacks resulted in sacks) and the 7th-lowest Completion % when pressured (40.0%), 12th-lowest NFL Rating when pressured (51.0%), and 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion % (59.7%). Meanwhile, Sir Dalton in limited snaps thus far has done something spectacular - he has a 100.00% Adjusted Completion % when under pressure (8 completions on 17 attempts and 72 pressure dropbacks), which PFF defines as the % of aimed passes thrown on target (completions + drops / aimed). 8 completions for 58 yards and 1 TD, spectacular! While all 4 NFCE teams' Offensive Lines feature in the top-10 league wide for most pressures allowed, at least Dallas's per-snap Pass Block Efficiency rating is borderline top third, while the Eagles are 2nd-worst in both metrics. And here enters QB Ben DiNucci. Good luck. The question of Ginger Supremacy will have to wait for another day.
Matchups to Watch
Eagles Defensive Line vs what is left of the Cowboys Offensive line
This has been one of the premier matchups in football over the last few seasons, however it is a shell of what it once was due to injuries. The last few years the Cowboys had one of the best offensive lines in football, but they lost one of their best players in the offseason when Travis Fredrick retired for health reasons after missing 2018 with Guillain-Barré syndrome and returning to play last year. His replacement Joe Looney is currently on the IR and could return this week, though a more likely return date for him is week 9. The Cowboys are also missing starting RT La’el Collins who started the season on the IR for his hip, but later needed season ending surgery and All-Pro Tyron Smith recently underwent season ending neck surgery. Smith’s replacement Brandon Knight recently underwent arthroscopic knee surgery and landed on the IR. The Eagles DL which has been one of the strengths of the team this season should feast. Brandon Graham, who is tied for 3rd in the league with 6 sacks, is currently slated to go up against an undrafted rookie and Fletcher Cox is slated to go up against a rookie 4th round pick. This is one of the best DLs in the league vs one of the worst OLs. The Eagles DL need to take advantage of this matchup and pressure rookie QB Ben DiNucci into making mistakes.
Darius Slay vs Amari Cooper
These games are the reason the Eagles went out and acquired Slay this offseason. In four games since Amari Cooper has arrived in Dallas he has torched the Eagles secondary with 25 catches for 422 yards and 5 TDs. According to Mike Clay, Slay and Cooper have faced off twice before while Slay was in Detriot, first in 2015 where Slay covered Cooper on 20 of 27 routes limiting Cooper to 0 catches on 3 targets in the game. Slay faced Cooper against last season where he shadowed Cooper on 26 of his 30 routes limiting him to 3 catches on 8 targets for 38 yards. Both players are having great seasons as Cooper is on pace for 1300 yards, though most of those were with Dak Prescott in the lineup and Slay has been as advertised shutdown opposing number 1s on a weekly basis. If Slay can shut down Cooper it will limit DiNucci’s to Gallup and Lamb who are both also extremely explosive, but taking away one of those weapons for the rookie QB will be huge and could force him into mistakes on plays where Cooper is the first read.
Eagles Rushing Attack vs the Dallas “run defense”
Unfortunately for the Eagles, it looks like Miles Sanders will miss his second straight week with a sprained MCL, which I am sure he is bummed about because he could have had a huge day vs a run defense ranked dead last giving up 178.3 yards a game. Last week the Redskins had more rushing yards in the first half than they have all season vs Dallas and Redskins RB Antonio Gibson had a career day. With Sanders out the Eagles will rely on RBs Boston Scott and Corey Clement who have not had the same success as Sanders on the ground this season. Clement has not been the same since an injury in 2018 which caused him to miss most the season and the 5’8 Scott is more of a change of pace back, but both have speed and can catch the ball out of the backfield. If the Eagles get the run game going, I don’t see Dallas being able to stop this offense as the running game will set up play-action-pass and RPOs which have caused the Dallas secondary to bite this season and allow for big plays. This could be especially dangerous with the return of Jalen Raegor who can fly. Raegor who is always dangerous with the ball in his hands may see a couple of runs himself on a jet sweep or a toss play.
Special thanks abenyishay for his help in creating this Game Preview.
https://preview.redd.it/lxc5ahmpmhx51.png?width=1100&format=png&auto=webp&s=96377ee44f927e18fd1c787f45bb5d8e093ad3dc We have made it through the first eight weeks of the 2020 season and it’s time to hand out some trophies (not literally of course, since we have to wait until the year is over). I already did this when I predicted the entire season about a week before we kicked things off and a lot of the candidates I mentioned back then, you will here again, but at the same time, some guys have kind of come out of nowhere. For some of these categories, three names were enough, while for a few others I mentioned two more notables. So who have been my MVP, Defensive Player and Coach of the Year, among others, for the first half of the season? Plus, at the bottom I added my All-Pro teams at this point. Also make sure to check out my detailed recap of NFL week eight.
Most Valuable Player:
I think three candidates have kind of separated themselves from the rest of the pack in this MVP discussion and the guy I have at the top has been there all season long, because no other player has been more valuable to his team and their success. https://preview.redd.it/lghw4cpxmhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0ae49df242209b2cf48fe6053ae79d306861177 1. Russell Wilson I have always said Wilson is one of the premiere quarterbacks in the NFL and that the only thing holding him back from quite putting up the same numbers other MVP candidates have produced is his own coaching staff and the conservative he plays in. Well, this year Brian Schottenheimer & company have finally listened to Seahawks fans screaming to “let Russ cook” and he has been smoking hot. Russ is top three in completion percentage (71.5%) and yards per attempt (8.4) and yards per game (307.3), leads NFL with a passer rating of 120.8 and 26 touchdown passes, which makes up for more than one TD every 10th attempt – also an NFL-best mark. And the crazy part is that his team has needed him to be that explosive, since Seattle’s defense has given up an average of 460.9 yards per game – easily the most of any team in the league. The Seahawks themselves are scoring an NFL-best 34.3 points per game and their season-low(!) 27 points came in a matchup, where he led one of his two game-winning drives on the season (versus Minnesota). He is also the only quarterback with multiple starts to not have lost a fumble all season long. The only blemish on Wilson’s resume and the Hawks lone loss came at Arizona in a Sunday Night game, where their quarterback threw three of his six interceptions on the year and that was his only performance that he had a passer rating below 100 in. However in that game, he lit up the Cardinals with the deep ball and made some incredible plays throughout the night. And if you break down the three picks he threw, two of them came by defenders who had to cover a ton of ground and no quarterback would have anticipated them to even be a factor, while on that third one D.K. slowed down for a back-shoulder throw The Seahawks put 35 points on the Patriots, 31 against the Dolphins number-one scoring defense and just now 37 against San Francisco – and it could easily been more if the came wasn’t completely out of hand in the fourth quarter. 2. Patrick Mahomes I know Mahomes has five TD passes less than Russ despite having played one more game, but he also only has one interception on the year – and that one came when he pushed it downfield on a 4th & long towards the end of the Chiefs’ only loss on the season. He is also behind only Wilson in quarterback rating (115.0) and first in QBR (86.8), with the latter thanks to what he has done taking off when nothing is there, which he has really gotten great at once he sees 2-man or other favorable situations. Of the 34 times he has taken off, nine have resulted in first downs and he finished in the end-zone twice. Of course this is still about Mahomes and Kansas City trashing opposing teams with all those weapons in the passing game. With defenses playing a lot more soft coverage against the Chiefs, Mahomes has taken advantage underneath with those short completions, while still finding ways to allow his receivers to uncover on secondary routes and getting the ball to them from all different angles. So his intended air yards may not be overly impressive, because of all the screens and stuff they draw up, and he might “only” be sixth in yards per attempt, but Pat is still tied for first with 31 passes of 20+ yards. He absolutely picked apart the Ravens defense in that huge Monday Night showdown, which tried every coverage and blitz package imaginable and the quarterback had an answer for all of them, completing some throws nobody in the league could make. The Chiefs’ season-low in points (23) came at the Chargers, when he certainly didn’t start out great, but still found a way to lead a comeback and win in overtime. And even in their only loss of the season against the Raiders, it was the opposing offense converting a sneak on fourth down, that denied Mahomes a chance to finish their late push. 3. Aaron Rodgers When you look at Rodgers’ most impressive statistic for his career it is his ridiculous touchdown-to-interception ratio of 4.47, which is a full point better than the next-closest guy (Russell Wilson) and twice as good as anybody that hasn’t played in the 2010’s. Well, right now he has the second-best rate for this season, behind only Patrick Mahomes at 20-2, and those two picks came in his only bad game at Tampa Bay. I’m not going to sugercoat this in any way – after going up 10-0 and once that pass-rush from the Bucs was unleashed, he could not get anything going. With that being said, he has been phenomenal in the six other contests, having throw less than 3 TDs in only of them and his lowest QB rating being at 107.6, with both of those thing coming against Detroit in week two, when the Packers just didn’t need him to crazy and still put up 42 points, as Aaron Jones got loose on multiple occasions. And Rodgers had not fumbled until that very last play we saw from him, as he was stripped from behind while trying to launch a Hail Mary at the end of the Vikings game. By the way, he was incredible in that loss as well, as the only two times the offense was stopped, Equanimeous St. Brown had consecutive passes go off his hands and then the refs for no apparent reason picked up the flag on a blatant pass interference against Robert Tonyan inside the red-zone. Rodgers leads the league with seven completions of 40+ yards and right now Drew Lock is the only starter in the league with a higher mark in yards beyond the sticks (0.9) – which when you look at the rest of the numbers isn’t always an endorsement for the second-year QB, as Lock has three more INTs on 100 less attempts. And outside of Davante Adams – who has missed some time – Rodgers hasn’t really been able to rely on any of his receivers, as they are tied for the most passes dropped at 18, even though the other two QBs with that number have played one more game than Green Bay. Notables:Josh Allen & Tom Brady
Offensive Player of the Year:
Of course, you could name the same three candidates from the MVP section here, but I tried to mix things up a little and give you three other names worthy of the award. And that includes only one quarterback. https://preview.redd.it/7bjpxm24nhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e2bb387c610fbc6d543f166a0582537bfc07ba6 1. Alvin Kamara I know that this award is often given to quarterbacks as well and it looks odd that Kamara is 16th in the league in rushing (431 yards), but he is averaging five yards per carry and he is also second to only DeAndre Hopkins among all players with 55 catches for an additional 556 yards through the air – so just over 10 yards per grab. Right now he is on pace for 2256 scrimmage yards on right around 20 touches a week, while he would also easily break the NFL record for receiving yards for a running back (1271 over 1191 from Charley Taylor in 1966). And he leads the league not only in scrimmage yards but also percentage of his offense’s yardage (36.5%), while being tied for first with 12 plays of 20+ yards on the season. While he has caught a couple of key wheel routes and can win as a downfield receiver, so far 94.5(!) percent of his receiving yards have come after the catch, constantly bailing out his quarterback by making something happen after checkdowns and ripping off big gains in the screen game. I mean against the Packers he caught 13 of 14 targets for 139 yards and he was the only reason they were in that game in the first place. The explosiveness, the contact balance and the ability get six or seven yards when there should be only three is unmatched. Kamara has scored reached the end-zone seven times and his only fumble, he recovered himself again. He is by far the best player on this Saints offense and the team overall and in the absence of Michael Thomas, he has been asked to shoulder the load for them. Since his lowest output in the season-opener, Kamara has not been held under 119 scrimmage yards in any other week. 2. Kyler Murray While Murray is only 16th among current starters in passing yards per game, only Russell Wilson and by about half a yard Justin Herbert have put up more combined passing and rushing yards at 326.3 a week. Right now, only Joe Burrow and Matt Ryan have been responsible for more combined first downs and touchdowns, and those two have played a full matchup more than the Cardinals and both just won their second games of the season, while Kyler is doing it in service of a 5-2 team, which outside of his own production has averaged less than 100 rushing yards on a weekly basis. As a runner, he leads all NFL players (with double-digit carries) in yards per attempt at 6.7 and 35 of his 65 carries led to first downs or touchdowns (seven TDs). I would not call Arizona’s passing game overly explosive, as Kyler is barely in the top 20 in yards per attempt (7.3), 20+ yard throws (21) and average yards to the sticks (-0.9), but a lot of that has to do with what Kliff Kingsbury wants to do with his Air Raid-based offense, while his QB is tied for second with six throws of 40+ yards and already has an 80-yarder on his resume. Plus, with that guy at the helm, they have the potential to get as hot as pretty much any team out there. Kyler had one really bad game against the Lions, in which Detroit used a lot of different coverages that had them all over the Cardinals route patterns, but #1 has been outstanding the rest of the year and I don’t come away from a lot of games thinking that a lot of his production was served up by the play-calling. I said a couple of weeks that Deshaun Watson is the most elusive quarterback in the league, but nobody is quicker at evading defenders and keeping himself upright. We all love Russell Wilson and his ability to extend plays, but just compare these numbers – Russ has been pressured 79 times and he’s been hit or sacked on 50 of those, Kyler on the other has been pressured 44 times (significantly less due to more of a horizontal passing attack), but he’s only been sacked nine times and taken five more hits (14 total). And Kyler already outdueled Russ on Sunday Night of week seven. 3. Derrick Henry King Henry is once again holding the crown for the league’s rushing leader at this moment. His 775 rushing yards are 123 more than any other player in the league, and while that is in correlation with handling the most carries of all RBs, he still averaging 4.8 yards per attempt, despite being asked to grind away games for the Titans. Right around 30 percent of his touches has resulted in a first down or touchdown (43 total first downs and eight TDs) and about 58 percent of his total yardage has come after contact. Nobody wants to tackle King Henry, because he can plow through 300-pounder defensive linemen at the point of attack and throw DBs around like ragdolls, when he gets around the edge (looking at you, Josh Norman), but at the same time, once he gets rolling, he is as fast as any player on the field, which we saw already when he ripped of an NFL-long 94-yarder against the Texans a couple of weeks ago. The difference between Henry and some of the other franchise backs is that he doesn’t contribute a whole lot in the passing game outside of a few screens (10 catches for 81 yards), but nobody takes on a bigger load than this guy and he really sets the table for everything the Titans do, with the heavy play-action and bootlegs. Usually this guy really starts rolling over the second half of the season, but he has been dominant right from the start this year. When you look at the three games Henry didn’t put 112+ yards on the ground, in two of them the opposing defense totally sold out against the run and Ryan Tannehill completed 75 percent of his passes with seven TDs and no picks, while the team scored 33 and 42 points respectively, and the other one came against the Steelers’ dominant defensive front. On the other hand, he also has the most scrimmage yards in a game all season, when he destroyed the Texans for 264 yards and took over that one overtime drive, to win it. Notables:The three MVP candidates
Defensive Player of the Year:
I think there is pretty clear top three in this one as well and I can honestly see an argument for each one of them to be the pick, but I have stuck my selection (and bet) of a guy I believed would come back even hungrier in 2020. https://preview.redd.it/jztbsyebnhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d42b8d0551d7a5a382c4c2f8cec7ef1a3f506b9 1. Myles Garrett This was my preseason pick for Defensive Player of the Year and similar to Russell Wilson’s MVP campaign, I have been riding this all season long. Myles Garrett is tied for a league-high nine sacks and only two players have hit the opposing quarterback more overall than him. The only two games he didn’t record a sack (the season-opener at Baltimore and this past week against the Raiders), the opposing team ran the ball on 56 and 65 percent respectively and somehow all those sacks he has put up have come in big moments – a strip on Joe Burrow to set up the offense at the Bengals 1-yard line after they were just stopped on fourth down in an eight-point game, another against Washington after the Browns finally extended the lead to more than one score, stripping Dak Prescott when the game was tied at 14 and set off a 27-0 run, setting the offense up in field goal range for their first points in the rematch with Cincinnati and while it won’t be found on the stats sheet, he also directly forced a safety on a throw-away by Philip Rivers to make it a two-score game against the Colts. The only other player that has forced four fumbles just like Myles is Ravens DB Marlon Humphrey, who has become a Peanut Punch specialist – and Garrett has also recovered a couple of those himself, with both of them directly setting up touchdown for the offense from short distance. Plus, he is excellent run-defender, who can yank blockers to the side and makes tackles around the line scrimmage, with only one miss on the season. Myles has grown so much with his technique as a pass-rusher, while obviously having that incredible combination of length and athleticism, but also might have gotten “looser” in his movement and how he can torque his body different ways. And the Browns are now using him as a mismatch against guards on passing downs quite a bit. 2. Aaron Donald Just like he has been the last five years or so, Aaron Donald is right up there with the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year and I would not be surprised at all if he won his third trophy at the end of the season. Donald is tied with Myles Garrett for the league-lead in sacks at nine and he is top five in total pressures (22) and QB hits (13), despite offensive lines sliding his way constantly. We have literally seen this man get triple-teamed and lift All-Pro offensive linemen off their feet, but only T.J. Watt has a higher pass-rush win percentage according to Pro Football Focus (25%). This guy is the only player with a four-sack performance this season and not only does he obviously contribute in a major way himself, but because of the way he gives his teammates one-on-one’s consistently, his Rams only have three other teams in front of them in terms of sacks as unit (26), despite not having a lot of names that you would recognize, outside a questionable former first-rounder in Leonard Floyd. And I just mentioned the only two players with more forced fumbles than Donald (Garrett and Humphrey), who has three himself. He has also recorded seven tackles for loss and only missed one of his 26 tackling attempts. The crazy part with his game is that for all the numbers you can actually see, there’s about twice as many plays he makes that don’t show up anywhere in the records. The only reason I don’t have him at number one is that he has four games without a full sack and that Garrett has been a little more consistent at coming up with those real game-changing plays. Still, AD is clearly right up there. 3. T.J. Watt And then this guy is as complete an edge defender as we have in the league. Watt can set the edge at the point of attack, he can chase ball-carriers down from behind as the unblocked man at the line and this past Sunday against Baltimore, we saw him take both guys at times on those read-option plays. Of his 25 tackles on the season, 12 have resulted in lost yardage, which is tied with teammate Vince Williams for a league-high. As a pass-rusher, Watt is “only” tied for fourth with 6.5 sacks, but his 21 hits on opposing QBs is four more than any other player in the league and the 27 total pressure are three more than the next-closest guy as well, while PFF has him tagged with the highest pass-rush win rate in correlation with that (27%). And he headlines the most destructive pass-rush in the league, as the Steelers defense leads the league with 30 sacks and easily has the highest pressure percentage of any unit out there at a whopping 35.0 percent. Watt has also batted down three passes and picked one off. He can do your classic flat drops or carry guys out of the backfield at times, but he can also stand up and move around the line to blitz from different angles or act as a spy at times. He surprisingly has yet to force a fumble this season, but I can remember right now on the very first play he was on the field against the Titans, a good 20 quarterbacks would have lost the ball in that moment with Watt swiping at it, and since he led the league in that category last season, I have no doubt he will rack up a few of those FFs still.
Offensive Rookie of the Year:
This award has two quarterbacks battling it out at the top right now, with one young star receivers and a couple of running backs – one picked in the first round and the other going undrafted – who are also in the running. https://preview.redd.it/s59hxqbhnhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=1367e2c355593e297cd3e85ba8c94c1f6a3ee3f6 1. Justin Herbert I get that coaches always try to protect their young quarterbacks and want to give them time to learn from the sidelines, but I hope everybody gets that Herbert and Tyrod Taylor aren’t even close to each other. And I have always liked Tyrod as a bridge-starter or game-manager type, but this rookie QB has taken this offense to a completely different level. When you just look at the schedule, you see that the two QBs have the same amount of wins on the season (only one for Herbert against the Jaguars), but in the season-opener the Chargers only put up 16 points against the Bengals, who have given up 28.2 per week from that point on, and L.A. has scored 27.2 points a game since then. It is not Herbert’s fault that his defense has let him down in the second half of games and allowed big comebacks. He took Patrick Mahomes & company to overtime, had his team up 24-7 against the Bucs before a fumble a minute until halftime started turning things around, he outplayed Drew Brees at the Superdome and was inches away in overtime from pulling off a game-tying or -winning drives and before the Bolts defense allowed an epic collapse last Sunday, they were dominating the Broncos 24-3 midway through the third quarter. The way Herbert has opened up the offense with the deep ball is incredible, with two 70+ TDs on the resume already, and he makes the whole field available, after they were very limited before. Among current starters, Herbert is third in passing yards per game (303.3) and second in combined touchdowns per game (3.0), while also being top ten in completion percentage, yards per attempt, quarterback rating and QBR. He is on pace to throw for 4550 yards and 38 touchdowns to go with about 350 rushing yards and five more TDs on the ground, over the course of a 15-game season. Those numbers would shatter all rookie records. 2. Joe Burrow No other team has thrown the ball more than the Bengals (330 pass attempts) and their quarterback leads the league with 221 completions on the season (67% completion percentage). With 11 touchdowns compared to five interceptions, that ratio doesn’t look overly impressive, but he has set up a lot of short rushing TDs, while Cincinnati barely cracks 100 rushing yards per game as a team and only one other squad averages less yards per carry (3.7). Until this past weekend, Burrow was tied with Carson Wentz for the most-sacked quarterbacks in the league, but thanks to a non-existent pass-rush for the Titans, in large part due to the spread-based passing attack the Bengals bring to the table, a clean week has the Bengals QB at “only” 28 sacks so far. However, he has been under the fire all season long, being tied for third with 79 total pressures, despite only eight quarterbacks spending less time in the pocket. And Burrow has yet to complete less than 60 percent of his passes in any game. I know the Bengals were blown out in that one Ravens game, but do we realize that was their only loss by more than one score? They tied the Eagles in a game where Burrow was sacked eight times and hit every other snap, they scored 30+ in their two matchups with the Browns, they were up 21-0 against the Colts in the second quarter and just this past Sunday they beat the recently 5-1 Titans by double-digits. And I would argue their rookie quarterback is by far the biggest reason for it. They are already guaranteed a better record this year than last season, as we are halfway through the season – and they are getting better every week. This guy is the future in Cincinnati. Now they just need to protect him and get that defense going. 3. Justin Jefferson I know that Odell Beckham Jr. was the only wide receiver to be named Offensive Rookie of the Year in the last ten years and I wouldn’t put anybody on the same level as that historic season, but since then this is the most impressive start we have seen for a rookie receiver. Through seven games, Jefferson has caught 31 of his 40 targets for 563 yards and three touchdowns. That puts him 12th among all receivers in yards per game, while having recorded a league-high 14.1 yards per target and 22 of his 31 grabs has resulted in a fresh set of downs. After a rather slow start, with five catches for 70 yards through the first two weeks, Jefferson came onto the scene with 71-yarder against the Titans and now already has three games of 100+ receiving yards, while only having played 74 percent of the snaps on the season. Jefferson has only dropped one pass and not fumbled once, while Kirk Cousins when targeting the rookie receiver, has a passer rating of over 100 despite having thrown four picks and I wouldn’t put a single one of those on the receiver definitely, as on a couple of them there was a linebacker dropping underneath a deep crosser that Cousins stared down the whole way, a badly underthrown pass into a tight window and on another one he and the rookie wideout clearly weren’t on the same page in terms of the route he was supposed to run. Through eight weeks, Jefferson is Pro Football Focus has the second-highest grade among all NFL receivers. I have always been a fan of Adam Thielen and he is Cousins’ favorite target, but to determine who opposing teams believe is more dangerous, all I have to do is watch the Packers put Jaire Alexander on the first-year man for almost the whole game last week. Notables:James Robinson & Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Defensive Rookie of the Year:
For the defensive side of the ball, this rookie selection was a little tougher, because there are a few guys that have filled the stat sheet across the board, but you don’t have those typical front-runners with a lot of sacks or interceptions, which usually take home the honors. https://preview.redd.it/6feckarlnhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=99ff1c8f00a81987ead19327f1465ccee3e50f17 1. Antoine Winfield Jr. When I look at who I believe is the best pro player among all defensive rookies already, I would say this is the name that comes to mind. Tampa Bay’s defensive scheme isn’t simple. They ran a lot of different coverages, they can blitz anybody and there are a lot of rules that you have to understand as a member of that unit. Winfield has come in and looked him he belonged from the first time he touched the field. The rookie safety has played 515 of 522 snaps on defense and he shows up quite a bit in the box score. He has recorded 31 solo tackles and only two misses all season long, showing off what a dependable tackler he is in space. He has intercepted a passe and broken up four more, plus he has forced fumble. And call it P.I. or not, he denied a two-point conversion to potentially tie the game this past Monday Night against the Giants. To go with that, he has asked to blitz 29 times in Todd Bowles’ pressure-heavy scheme, resulting in two sacks and three extra hits on the quarterbacks. What made me a big fan of Winfield coming out of Minnesota was the versatility he presents and the fact he played so much bigger than his size would indicate. The Bucs coaching staff has utilized a lot around the line of scrimmage a lot and I love how he drives on routes in quarters coverage. He gas been “credited” with giving up just over 200 yards and two touchdowns, to go with a passer rating of 114.4 in coverage, but I think about half of that production came on two plays in the Chargers game, once with him ending up as the closest defender on a deep bomb, when the other safety should have actually opened up and then on a scramble drill play, where Keenan Allen uncovered late against him. 2. Patrick Queen Baltimore has a rich tradition of middle linebackers, but not so much when it comes to LSU players, with Ozzie Newsome as an Alabama alumn not having drafted a single Tigers player in over 20 years as the Ravens GM. This year, with Eric DeCosta calling the shots, they wanted to bring in a dynamic player to put in the middle of their defense and when Patrick Queen surprisingly was still on the board when they were making their first-round pick this past April, it didn’t matter which college he came from. Queen was immediately put in the starting lineup and he has been filling up the stat sheet from the start. In seven games, he has recorded 48 combined tackles, four of them for loss, two sacks to go with five more QB hits, two fumbles forced and recovered, including a long scoop-and-score. His speed at the second level to string guys out to the sideline or get to the quarterback on delayed blitzes has been a big reason this defense has gone to a higher level in 2020. Of course, he is still a first-year player and not perfect. Queen has already missed 11 tackles and there have been some moments where the rookie seemed a little confused. Two that come to mind right away – the Chiefs running that double-swing fake before throwing the TE screen over the middle, where they had Queen’s head spinning and then last week against the Steelers, where I’m pretty sure he should have covered tight-end Eric Ebron in man, but thought he had the back and that allowed Ebron to easily score on a shallow crosser from 18 yards out. He is learning and we have already seen moments, where he just sees it and goes, shutting down plays before they can even get going, while he obviously has a knack for the ball. 3. Jeremy Chinn One of the small-school prospects I loved in this most recent draft was this 6’3”, 220-pound safety from Southern Illinois, who put up ridiculous numbers at the scouting combine and showed incredible potential on film. So far, he has put up 38 solo tackles – most by any rookie in the league, has intercepted one pass and broken up another five. Chinn has been all over the field, with his ability to cover ground and erase angles for the ball-carrier. One of the two or three negatives I had about him and why I had him around the top 50 and not even higher was the ability to process information post-snap, to not just have his talent take him to the ball, but also the anticipation and identification of certain keys to react quickly. I believe Matt Rhule, defensive coordinator Phil Snow and that entire staff has done an outstanding job of simplifying Chinn’s assignments and just letting him around and make plays. Once he sees something happening in front of him, he can get there as fast as pretty much any player in the league and the Panthers have allowed that talent to flourish. The biggest issue for him are the ten missed tackles so far, but he’ll clean that up as well. Through eight weeks, Chinn has played 96 percent of the defensive snaps and been a fixture on the punt team as well, where he had a huge first-down run against the Falcons in last week’s Thursday Night game on a fake. As he gets more comfortable in the system, I expect him to become a bigger part of the pass-rush, because his closing speed as a blitzer is just absurd. Notables:Jaylon Johnson & Julian Blackmon
Comeback Player of the Year:
As I say every year when making my preseason picks, this is the most vague award of the list, because there are so many different ways you can look at it – players who were hurt for most/all of last season, guys who had a few off-years and then those who were out of the league altogether. https://preview.redd.it/azaaj8wonhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b8d658e734d0fbb7dab6ce01769d86131a0227f 1. Ben Roethlisberger Roethlisberger is completing 67.9 percent of his passes and while he is only 25th in passing yards per game (232.6), a lot of that has to do with being part of a 7-0 team with the best defense in the league and trying to run down the clock late in games a lot of times. Big Ben has been really steady for Pittsburgh, not having completed less than 63 percent of his passes yet for a total of 15 touchdowns compared to only four interceptions, with five games that didn’t include any turnovers from him. Of those four picks, one came on a wobbling 50-50 pass, where Juju immediately called for pass interference, one came in the end-zone on the final play before halftime and another was batted up by a defensive lineman right into the hands of a linebacker. The Steelers are tied for third with converting 49.5 percent of their third downs and even though their run game is about average, they control the clock primarily with the short passing game, where their quarterback gets everybody involved. And when his team has needed him most Big Ben has come through, with two go-ahead touchdown drives in fourth quarters and taking over on crucial drives, with no-huddle attacks and almost exclusively going in the shotgun to spread it around. In the battle of unbeatens at Tennessee, the Steelers were up 24-7 at halftime, with Roethlisberger converting all four third downs with nine or more yards to go. This past Sunday in Baltimore in a huge AFC North clash with the Ravens, the Steelers offense could not get anything done for the first half plus, with Lamar Jackson gifting his opponents 14 points directly off turnovers, but when Pittsburgh needed to a couple of touchdowns to go ahead, their quarterback came through, as they threw the ball on 15 of those 18 plays and the three runs resulted in -1 yard (+ a touchdown). To do this after a season-ending elbow injury on his throwing arm last year is impressive. 2. Jason Verrett For this one we have to go all the way back to like 2015 and even before that. Jason Verrett was a first-team All-American selection in 2013 and then a first-round pick for the Chargers coming out of TCU. After showing a ton of potential in an injury-riddled rookie campaign, he became a Pro Bowler in his second season with three interceptions and 12 more passes deflected, including a pick-six. The next two years, he only played a combined five games with consecutive ACL injuries and then missed all of 2018 with a torn Achilles. His bad injury luck would follow him to San Francisco however, as he would go on IR with an ankle injury shortly after signing with the 49ers last year. Now, finally in 2020 he is back on the field and balling out. Verrett had a big interception in the end-zone against the Rams a couple of weeks ago and three PBUs the rest of the season, having started the last six games. However, it is the more advanced stats about what the veteran corner has done in coverage that are really impressive. On 25 targets, he has given up just 123 yards and no touchdowns. Plus, he is a highly dependable tackler, having only missed one attempt all season and holding opposing receivers to just 32 yards after the catch. The 49ers had major issues with their corners for large stretches of the season, as Richard Sherman has been on IR since week one and the with Emmanuel Moseley also missing some time, those other guys on the boundary have gotten roasted in some of their matchups. Not with Verrett. He has easily been a top ten player at his position so far and I don’t know how you can take him out of the starting lineup, once they have Sherm and Moseley back together. 3. Aldon Smith I thought long and hard about putting Rob Gronkowski here, because after Gronk look like his feet were stuck in mud early on, he and Tom Brady are not operating at a really high level again, and it almost seems like the big tight-end got his confidence back. However, I decided to go with somebody who was not one but five(!) years out of the league and as we all know, this award is a lot about the stories of these players. When Aldon Smith was drafted in 2011, it was immediately between him and Von Miller as the best young edge rusher in the league, and Smith out-produced the Broncos All-Pro with 14 and 19.5 sacks in his first two years, before he entered a rehabilitation center midway through 2013 season, when he has on path for another one of those years. The two following seasons, he looked like a shell of himself in San Francisco and then Oakland, as his mind clearly wasn’t right, with several off-the-field issues leading two suspensions that cost him the 2016 and ’17 seasons. Now, all the way in 2020, he is back with the Dallas Cowboys and especially early on he looked like a dominant player on the edge. Smith is now at five sacks on the season, with three of those coming against the Seahawks, as he was the only defensive player that kept his team in the game, with additional hits on the quarterbacks. To go with that, he has made some nice tackles in the run game, fighting off blocks and getting hands on the ball-carrier. He has cooled off a little bit these last few weeks, but the lack of production is more a product of how bad the Cowboys defense has been as a whole and long much they’ve been on the field. If he was on a team right now, that allowed him to rush in obvious passing situation, he could potentially be in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation. Notables:Rob Gronkowski & Alex Smith
Play of the Year:
https://preview.redd.it/e7hgczoznhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=367a15768a5e30164afcabc575cbf2e6700ff75f 1. D.K. Metcalf chase-down tackle on Budda Baker after the INT One of the greatest hustle plays you will ever see and it started a meme fest on the internet. 2. Derrick Henry 94-yard touchdown run vs. Texans The combination of speed and power is freakish for this dude. He tore Houston a new one. 3. Odell Beckham Jr. going 60 yards on the reverse vs. Cowboys Of couese bad effort and angles by the Dallas defense, but this looked like Giants Odell.
All-Pro teams:
Since this is not about building a team or anything like that, I just went to the most used personnel sets for either side of the ball – 11 personnel and nickel defense – and filled up those spots with who I believe have been the best players at those positions. So there is differentiating between left and right tackle, 4-3 defensive end and 3-4 were put together as “EDGE” and there are just any two stand-up linebackers inserted.
Offense:
LT David Bakhtiari LG Quenton Nelson C Corey Linsley RG Wyatt Teller RT Duane Brown Second team:Laremy Tunsil, Michael Onwenu, Jason Kelce, Gabe Jackson & Ryan Ramczyk WR DeAndre Hopkins WR D.K. Metcalf WR Davante Adams TE Travis Kelce Second team:Calvin Ridley, Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson & George Kittle QB Russell Wilson RB Alvin Kamara Second team:Patrick Mahomes & Derrick Henry
Defense:
DE Myles Garrett DT Aaron Donald DT Chris Jones DE T.J. Watt Second team:Khalil Mack, Jeffery Simmons, Cam Heyward & Calais Campbell LB Fred Warner LB Lavonte David Second team:Darius Leonard & K.J. Wright CB Kyle Fuller CB Jaire Alexander NB Marlon Humphrey Second team:James Bradberry, Jalen Ramsey & Jason Verrett FS Minkah Fitzpatrick SS Budda Baker Second team:Jessie Bates & Antoine Winfield Coach of the Year in the comments!! If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/11/05/nfl-2020-midseason-awards/ Also make sure you check out my detailed recap of the NFL's week eight on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXx87t1Dcvk
Florida vs. Oklahoma odds, predictions, betting trends for 2020 Cotton Bowl
No. 6 Oklahoma and No. 7 Florida meet in what should be a high-scoringCotton Bowl Classic on Dec. 30. The gameis at theAT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Kickoff is scheduled for8p.m. onESPN. Florida (8-3) is back in a New Year’s Day Six bowl for the third consecutive season. Dan Mullen is 2-0 in bowl games for the Gators, and the Gators bring the nation’s leading passer in quarterback Kyle Trask to the game.Oklahoma (8-2) missed the College Football Playoff this year, but the Sooners won seven straight games to close out the 2020 regular season. Lincoln Riley is 0-3 in bowl games against SEC schools, so this is a chance to silence the critics on that front.Here's everything to know about betting onFlorida vs. Oklahoma,including updated odds, trends and our prediction for the 2020 Cotton Bowl.MORE: Predicting every bowl game for 2020-21Florida vs. OklahomaoddsSpread:Florida -3Oveunder:71.5Moneyline:Oklahoma –110, Florida –110The opening line has stuck, but the over continues to trend upward. It opened at 67.5. It’s fair to expect a shootout between the two high-scoring offenses.Florida vs. Oklahomaall-time seriesThe Gators and Sooners have one previous meeting. Florida beat Oklahoma 24-14 in the BCS championship game on Jan. 8, 2009. Tim Tebow led Florida to the victory with 231 passing yards, 109 rushing yards and two TDs.Three trends to know—The Sooners were 7-3 ATS this season, but they were favored in every game. Oklahoma is 3-2 ATS as an underdog under Riley.—The Gators were 5-6 ATS this season, and that included a 3-6 ATS mark as a favorite. Florida was a single-digit favorite only one time this season.—Florida is 3-4 ATS in neutral-site games under Mullen. Oklahoma is 5-6 ATS in neutral-site games under Riley.Three things to watch—Trask without his favorite targets. Trask won’t have starting tight end Kyle Pitts, who opted out of the bowl game to prepare for the 2021 NFL Draft. Pitts battled injuries in the second half of the season, and he still averaged 17.9 yards per catch with12 TDs.Kadarious Toney (984 yards, 10 TDs) and Trevon Grimes (589 yards, 9 TDs) also opted out.Oklahoma did not allow more than two passing TDs in a single game this season.—Spencer Rattler vs. SEC defense. Rattler struggled with interceptions early in the season, but he threw just three picks in the Sooners’ last seven games.Freshman Marvin Mims (583 yards, 8 TDs) and sophomore Theo Wease (494 yards, 3 TDs) emerged as playmakers, and that led to a strong second half of the season. Oklahoma will test a Florida defense thatallowed 258.3 passing yards per game.—Aggressive play-calling. Florida and Oklahoma were fast-starting teams in the regular season. The Gators outscored opponents 103-73 in the first quarter, but the Sooners were outstanding at 134-17 in the first quarter. Neither Mullen nor Riley is going to hold back with the deep shots, and they should come early.That first quarter should feature a handful of trick plays, too. Stat that matters162That’s the number of combined points Oklahoma has allowed in semifinal losses to Georgia, Alabama and LSU the last three seasons – an average of 54 points per game. We know Oklahoma can score, but it’s on the defense to get a few stops against a high-scoring Florida offense that is just as productive as those last three offenses the Sooners faced.Florida vs. Oklahoma predictionRattler gets off to a fast start with his receivers, but the Gators hold up enough against the running game to stall a few Sooners’ drives in the second quarter. Oklahoma leads at halftime, but Trask leads a second-half comeback. A late TD pass gives the Gators their third straight New Year’s Day Six bowl victory.Both offenses averaged more than 40 points per game this season, but this one falls right on the over line.Final score:Florida 38, Oklahoma 34
Florida vs. Oklahoma odds, predictions, betting trends for 2020 Cotton Bowl
No. 6 Oklahoma and No. 7 Florida meet in what should be a high-scoringCotton Bowl Classic on Dec. 30. The gameis at theAT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Kickoff is scheduled for8p.m. onESPN. Florida (8-3) is back in a New Year’s Day Six bowl for the third consecutive season. Dan Mullen is 2-0 in bowl games for the Gators, and the Gators bring the nation’s leading passer in quarterback Kyle Trask to the game.Oklahoma (8-2) missed the College Football Playoff this year, but the Sooners won seven straight games to close out the 2020 regular season. Lincoln Riley is 0-3 in bowl games against SEC schools, so this is a chance to silence the critics on that front.Here's everything to know about betting onFlorida vs. Oklahoma,including updated odds, trends and our prediction for the 2020 Cotton Bowl.MORE: Predicting every bowl game for 2020-21Florida vs. OklahomaoddsSpread:Florida -3Oveunder:71.5Moneyline:Oklahoma –110, Florida –110The opening line has stuck, but the over continues to trend upward. It opened at 67.5. It’s fair to expect a shootout between the two high-scoring offenses.Florida vs. Oklahomaall-time seriesThe Gators and Sooners have one previous meeting. Florida beat Oklahoma 24-14 in the BCS championship game on Jan. 8, 2009. Tim Tebow led Florida to the victory with 231 passing yards, 109 rushing yards and two TDs.Three trends to know—The Sooners were 7-3 ATS this season, but they were favored in every game. Oklahoma is 3-2 ATS as an underdog under Riley.—The Gators were 5-6 ATS this season, and that included a 3-6 ATS mark as a favorite. Florida was a single-digit favorite only one time this season.—Florida is 3-4 ATS in neutral-site games under Mullen. Oklahoma is 5-6 ATS in neutral-site games under Riley.Three things to watch—Trask without his favorite targets. Trask won’t have starting tight end Kyle Pitts, who opted out of the bowl game to prepare for the 2021 NFL Draft. Pitts battled injuries in the second half of the season, and he still averaged 17.9 yards per catch with12 TDs.Kadarious Toney (984 yards, 10 TDs) and Trevon Grimes (589 yards, 9 TDs) also opted out.Oklahoma did not allow more than two passing TDs in a single game this season.—Spencer Rattler vs. SEC defense. Rattler struggled with interceptions early in the season, but he threw just three picks in the Sooners’ last seven games.Freshman Marvin Mims (583 yards, 8 TDs) and sophomore Theo Wease (494 yards, 3 TDs) emerged as playmakers, and that led to a strong second half of the season. Oklahoma will test a Florida defense thatallowed 258.3 passing yards per game.—Aggressive play-calling. Florida and Oklahoma were fast-starting teams in the regular season. The Gators outscored opponents 103-73 in the first quarter, but the Sooners were outstanding at 134-17 in the first quarter. Neither Mullen nor Riley is going to hold back with the deep shots, and they should come early.That first quarter should feature a handful of trick plays, too. Stat that matters162That’s the number of combined points Oklahoma has allowed in semifinal losses to Georgia, Alabama and LSU the last three seasons – an average of 54 points per game. We know Oklahoma can score, but it’s on the defense to get a few stops against a high-scoring Florida offense that is just as productive as those last three offenses the Sooners faced.Florida vs. Oklahoma predictionRattler gets off to a fast start with his receivers, but the Gators hold up enough against the running game to stall a few Sooners’ drives in the second quarter. Oklahoma leads at halftime, but Trask leads a second-half comeback. A late TD pass gives the Gators their third straight New Year’s Day Six bowl victory.Both offenses averaged more than 40 points per game this season, but this one falls right on the over line.Final score:Florida 38, Oklahoma 34
Will the Green Bay Packers win OVER/UNDER 9 games? By University Stats Prof!
1. Introduction
Matt LaFleur’s first season as Green Bay’s head coach has to be considered a success. He led the team to a 13-3 record, which secured the NFC North title. The Packers held off the Seahawks to a 28-23 home win in the first round of the playoffs, but were ousted by the Niners in a brutal 37-20 thumping (a game in which the Packers dugged themselves into an early 27-0 hole).
2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs) Aaron Rodgers will be entering his 16th NFL season. He had another excellent year with a 26-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio and over 4,000 passing yards. He finished as the 7th-best QB in the league according to PFF ratings. At 36 years old, he is likely to have a few good years left. After all, Drew Brees and Tom Brady posted nice statistics in their late thirties. Rodgers has been very durable throughout his career, but he’s not invincible either. Tim Boyle was the backup plan last year, and the team needed to upgrade the position while starting to think about the post-Rodgers era. Still, drafting Jordan Love was the most questionable and talked-about pick in this year’s draft. People expected the Packers to go with a veteran backup QB. Rodgers has mentioned several times he wants to play in his forties; he can still offer a good five years of solid play in the frozen tundra. Love has possesses great size, throws with velocity and he’s very mobile. The main knock on him is the decision-making and inconsistency. As a sophomore, he threw 32 TD passes versus 6 interceptions. He regressed a lot last year by posting a mediocre 20:17 TD:INT mark. Granted, his surrounding cast was very weak and he had to go through a coaching change. Love can throw from many different arm angles; he reminds people of Patrick Mahomes in this regard. He can throw a fastball or a soft touch pass. Quick note: he almost quit football when he was 14 years old after his dad committed suicide. However, he knew his dad would want him to keep playing, so he did just that. 2.2 Running Backs (RBs) Aaron Jones is a top running back in this league. Along with Jamaal Williams, they form a lethal duo. Including the playoffs, Jones ended up scoring 23 touchdowns in 18 games. His 19 regular season scores were the second most in Packers history. His numbers have increased in each of his first three years as a pro. He is also excellent as a pass catcher. Despite playing in the shadow of Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams still finished as the 17th-best RB based on PFF rankings. He does not seem like a lead back, but he’s a perfect change-of-pace guy. Much like Jones, he can do some damage as a receiver as well. Williams has been a steady performer thus far in his career. He has rushed for 450-550 yards in each of his three seasons, while catching a minimum of 25 balls. He has 15 total TDs over this three-year span. If you thought GM Brian Gutekunst made a strange move by drafting QB Jordan Love in the first round, he doubled down with another head scratcher in the 2nd round when he took A.J. Dillon. Message to Mr. Gutekunst: Aaron Rodgers needed pass catchers, not a third running back! I really don’t get this pick either. I’m not saying Dillon won’t be good in the NFL; only time will tell. However, it clearly wasn’t a position of need for the Packers. Dillon is a power back who rarely breaks off huge runs. He racked up big numbers in three seasons in Boston College. He’s unlikely to become a three-down starter, especially since he’s not a good pass catcher. He will likely be used sporadically as a rookie. 2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs) Davante Adams is one of the best at his position. He had a streak of three straight seasons with at least 10 TD receptions snapped last year, but he still caught 83 passes for 997 yards in 12 games (he missed four games because of a toe injury). Outside of Adams, all pass catchers appeared lost on the field. None of them developed a good chemistry with Rodgers. Marquez Valdes-Scantling was a huge disappointment last year. He showed promise as a rookie with over 500 receiving yards. Here’s a jaw-dropping statistic: after Week #7, MVS did not get more than 19 receiving yards in any meeting. That’s awful. One of the guys benefiting from Valdes-Scantling’s poor play was Jake Kumerow. He got more playing time than expected, but still only caught 12 passes. He is closing in on 30 years of age and is limited as an athlete, so he’s not a long-term answer for sure. Allen Lazard was also thrown into action far more than expected. He finished second in terms of receiving yards for Green Bay, but let’s face the reality: the undrafted guy remains more of a #3 or #4 WR for any team. Geronimo Allison was another bust last year. His top performance over the last 12 games (including the playoffs) was a meager 33 receiving yards. He left for another NFC North team, the Detroit Lions. In other words, the #2 role is wide open. The team hopes newly acquired Devin Funchess can step into that role. The former second rounder had his best season in 2017 with the Panthers with a 63-840-8 stat line. He signed with the Colts last year, but played just one game before breaking a collarbone. He will be 26 years old this season and provides an interesting prospect for the Packers. 2.4 Tight Ends (TEs) We’re not done talking about 2019 busts. Jimmy Graham was one of them. He clearly looks washed. He received the lowest grades of his 10-year career, and deservedly so. The Packers released him and he signed a few days later with the Bears (a horrible mind-boggling two-year, $16 million contract). Marcedes Lewis received surprisingly good marks from PFF. If you look into the numbers, the good grade occurred mainly because of efficient run and pass blocking. He’s not much of a pass catcher and he will be 36 years old when the season begins. Robert Tonyan will also be in the mix, but the guy that has the best chance to break out as a receiver in 2020 only caught three passes last year (all in the playoffs): Jace Sternberger. Taken in the third round of the 2019 draft, Sternberger was a threat at Texas A&M in college. He missed most of the regular season because of injuries, but the door is wide open with Graham’s departure. We might also see third-round rookie Josiah Deguara. He has a great motor and plays extremely hard. He’s undersized as a tight end, though. 2.5 Offensive Line (OL) The Packers had a pretty solid offensive line in 2019. All five starters managed to play at least 84% of the offensive snaps. And they all finished above-average according to PFF ratings! The bad news, however, is the Bryan Bulaga left for the Chargers. Despite turning over 30 years old, he still played at a high level. The Packers decided to replace him by signing Rick Wagner, formerly of the Lions. Wagner’s PFF grades from 2016 to 2018 were as follows: 74.0, 75.2 and 71.4. Last year, his play deteriorated a lot and he was tagged with a 59.0 grade. He finished as the #61 tackle among 81 guys. I like the fact that the team is returning four out of five guys, but replacing Bulaga with Wagner has to be viewed as a downgrade. 2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE The Packers offense finished in the middle of the pack in points scored per game. Barring major injuries, I expect about the same production in 2020. The QB and RB situations remain the same. Adding Funchess is not a huge move, but it won’t hurt. The team clearly needs someone to step up opposite of Davante Adams. At tight end, losing Jimmy Graham means close to nothing since he was so ineffective. Sternberger might bring a nice contribution, but we can hardly expect him to be a game-breaker. Finally, the OL will take a dip with the loss of Bulaga. I don’t believe Rick Wagner can do better than him. All in all, I view the additions/departures as a slight negative for Green Bay, but having so many starters returning to the lineup for a second straight season is always a good thing in the NFL. For these reasons, I expect a similar output as 2019 from this unit. Final call (2020 vs 2019): Stable
3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs) Kenny Clark had a fantastic season! He is one of the best interior rushers in the NFL. He recorded six sacks for the second straight year, and PFF ranked him as the 13th-best interior linemen out of 114 qualifiers. The same nice comments cannot be made about Dean Lowry. He had the worst season of his four-year career as a pro. He did not post a single sack and wasn’t great against the run either. Reserve Tyler Lancaster is only there to provide some depth. He isn’t particularly good in any aspect of the game. The team did not make any move regarding this position during the offseason. 3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED) During the last offseason, the Packers acquired two Smiths: Za’Darius and Preston. They burst onto the scene and got 13.5 and 12 sacks, respectively. Obviously, both received high marks for their pass rushing abilities, but Preston finished as an average linebacker overall because of mediocre run defense and poor coverage. Kyler Fackrell was a huge disappointment in 2019. After racking up 10.5 sacks in 2018, he only got one in 2019! He signed a one-year deal with the Giants. First-round pick Rashan Gary wasn’t necessarily impressive during his rookie season. He played 23% of the snaps, while obtaining two sacks but very pedestrian marks from PFF (an overall 55.8 grade, which is near the bottom among edge defenders). 3.3 Linebackers (LBs) Green Bay lost its leader in tackles from the past three years, Blake Martinez. After starting 61 of the last 64 Packers games, Martinez decided to join the New York Giants. He had the second-most tackles in the league last year, but don’t be misled by that number. Martinez still finished slight below-average (52nd out of 89 LBs) because of poor play against the run. The Packers also lost some depth at the position when B.J. Goodson left for Cleveland. Green Bay picked up a linebacker from the Browns roster: Christian Kirksey. He was picked in the 3rd round of the 2014 before being involved in all 16 games from his first four seasons in the NFL. However, he has been plagued with injuries over the most recent two years; he played 7 games in 2018 and only 2 games in 2019. He is also capable of racking up tackles, as shown by his 2016 and 2017 seasons where he obtained 146 and 138. His PFF grades during his first four seasons varied between 61.9 and 69.3. Just to give you a rough idea, a 65.0 rating would have been good for 29th place out of 89 LBs. 3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs) Jaire Alexander has done the job as the #1 corner. He has obtained 72.4 and 71.2 marks from PFF during his first two seasons, which is well-above average. He’s so-so defending the run, but his coverage skills are very good. The number two corner, Kevin King had five interceptions last year after getting just one over his first two years as a pro. He did show some improvement after two rocky years. He finished 2019 as a middle-of-the-pack corner. Tramon Williams played 74% of the snaps and had a surprisingly good season despite his age. He will be 37 when the 2020 season begins. He is currently a free agent and it remains to be seen if the Packers bring him back or not. In summary, Alexander and King are both pretty young and could still be improving, but Tramon Williams provided quality play and it’s uncertain if someone else can pick up the slack. 3.5 Safeties (S) Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage were the top two guys here. Along with Za’Darius and Preston Smith, the Adrian Amos was another excellent signing by the Packers during the 2019 offseason. Amos had been a reliable guy in Chicago for four seasons, and he continued to excel in the frozen tundra. After being selected as the #21 overall pick in the 2019 draft, Darnell Savage did show some flashes as a rookie last year. He finished as the #47 safety among 87 qualifiers, which is very satisfying for a rookie. He earned nice marks in coverage (77.4), but horrible ones against the run (37.7). Will Redmond will be back as the number three safety. He’s not starter material for sure. 2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE Most of the starters are returning in 2020. That’s the good news. The team lost their leader in tackles, Blake Martinez, as well as pass rusher Kyler Fackrell and CB Tramon Williams. The only acquisition worth of note is Christian Kirksey. Him not having played very much during the last two seasons brings some question marks. The Packers defense struggled against the run last year, and there’s no reason to believe that will change in 2020. Green Bay still finished 9th in points allowed, which was a very acceptable result. Unfortunately, a decrease in effectiveness is expected and I predict this unit will end 2020 as a middle-of-pack defense (12th – 19th in points allowed). Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small downgrade
4. Regular Season Wins
According to sportsbooks, the Green Bay Packers are expected to win 9 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”? Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:
Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
Count the proportion of seasons where the Packers won more or less than 9 games.
Here are the results (excluding the simulated years where the Pack won exactly 9 games, since in those cases your bet would have tied):
Estimated Probability
Sportsbook
Odds
ROI
OVER 9 WINS
51.4%
bwin
+115
+10.5%
UNDER 9 WINS
48.6%
Heritage Sports
+100
-2.8%
Tip: Bet OVER 9 wins Return On Investment (ROI): +10.5% Rank: 25th-highest ROI out of 32 teams Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -106 Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Packers’ 16 regular season games: HOME: -6 vs ATL, -10 vs CAR, -4.5 vs CHI, -6.5 vs DET, -11.5 vs JAX, -3 vs MIN, -2.5 vs PHI, -3.5 vs TEN. ROAD: 0 @ CHI, -2 @ DET, 0 @ HOU, +2.5 @ IND, +3 @ MIN, +5.5 @ NO, +6.5 @ SF, +2.5 @ TB. Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020. TOMORROW: I'll talk about the team whose ROI is the 24th-highest in the league, the Pittsburgh Steelers! Did you like this write-up? If so, comment below! I'd like to know YOUR opinion on what to expect from the Packers' 2020 season! Professor MJ
college and nfl football odds and predictions against the spread video
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